DAVIS, Calif. — California heat waves happen regularly in the summer.
Afternoon temperatures highs can reach into the 100s and last for days. Knowing when they will hit can save lives and limit the amount of agriculture loss.
The Research
Researcher Dr. Richard Grotjahn from the University of California, Davis and Yun-Young Lee from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation [APEC] Climate Center in Busan, South Korea, discovered a link between thunderstorm activity in the tropics and California heat waves.
They knew a thunderstorm circulation pattern in the tropics called the Madden-Julian Oscillation [MJO] had been linked to winter patterns. They thought, why not see if summer heat waves could also be somehow linked to the MJO.
Grotjahn and Lee used temperature data from about 25 heat waves occurring from 1979-2010 in the California Central Valley. They then looked at the MJO phases during those same periods.
The Results
They found that when there are intense thunderstorms in the tropics over the Indian Ocean, Southeast Asia and the eastern Pacific Ocean, California heat waves followed. In addition, they found this pattern is predictable. This, in turn, gives forecasters lead time on heat wave events. The most direct link for hot weather in the Valley occurs when there is intense MJO activity in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Applications
This information about heat waves is especially helpful for California’s Central Valley to prevent catastrophic loss to the billion-dollar agriculture and dairy industry. The best way to ease the stress of heat is to add water. Unfortunately, that water may not come easy in the Central Valley so preparation is key.
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